Editor’s Note: Meshack Onditi, a self-styled political analyst, explains why William Ruto stands a better chance to win the August 9 poll.
With exactly two weeks to the election, it is evident that the August 9 election is largely a contest between Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto.
That being said, I would like to respond to one of the commentators on this forum who strongly hinted that Azimio Coalition candidate Raila Odinga will win the August 9 poll.
Like I have stated on this forum before, Ruto has prepared well and there is a very high likelihood he will win the August 9 presidential elections.
William Ruto, who is the the Kenya Kwanza candidate started the 2022 presidential campaigns immediately after Uhuru was sworn in 2013.
The truth is the deputy president understood clearly that it was unlikely that Uhuru was going to interrupt him given the president still needed his support to win the 2017 poll.
Therefore, Ruto used the chance to painstakingly build his support base across the country uninterrupted.
A shrewd negotiator and a foremost student of the late Daniel Moi, the man from Sugoi went on to deploy charm offensive that helped him to win tens of ODM legislators.
Also, they say make hay while the sun shines and no one embodies this better than William Ruto.
During the above stated period, the deputy president seized the chance to amass wealth, using all fair and unfair means.
On building a strong 2022 campaign war chest, DP Ruto who is more realistic and discerning than Raila, was guided by the fact Kenyans love money and they tend to gravitate towards a candidate who can line their pockets.
A presidential frontrunner in Kenya spends millions of shillings in buying sitting MPs, governors, MCAs and bloggers.
What’s more, the logistical cost of a single political rally runs into millions factoring in ferrying people to the venue and handouts.
Ruto, aware of this facts, secured highly lucrative deals and in the process got paid billions by the same government he served in.
It is this campaign war chest that has enabled the man from Sugoi to hold hundreds of rallies even as his boss president Uhuru Kenyatta expressed displeasure with early campaigns.
Also Ruto is likely to get more votes in areas where UhuRuto ticket flopped or performed badly in 2013.
In simpler terms, some parts of Kenya have mainly been voting against a Kikuyu candidate, this from the feeling that Kikuyus have overstayed in the presidency.
As such, many people in Coast, Western Kenya and other parts who voted against UhuRuto in 2013 and 2017 might just vote for Ruto. He is not a Kikuyu.
And I’m saying this with good authority as one with relatives across the Coast region and the western Kenya.
For instance, it is not far-fetched to have Ruto beat Raila in Kwale and Lamu-even Kilifi County all which in the past voted overwhelmingly voted for ODM and Raila.
By the same scale, Ruto will certainly get more votes in Kakamega and Bungoma than UhuRuto ticket garnered in 2017.
Now, with all these factors in favour of Ruto, the swing vote arena moves to Mt Kenya where the UDA party leader is likely to beat the ODM leader by at least a 10 percentage margin.
Under these circumstances, the best Raila could wish for is a runoff but all indications are Ruto will beat baba in the first round.
Opinions expressed in this article are solely that of the writer and do not necessarily represent the position of GOTTA.news.