Editor’s Note: Weldon Kipng’etich, a self-styled political analyst, explains why Raila Odinga will win the August 9 poll.
Sometime back, I wrote on this forum how Azimio presidential Raila Odinga could better his chances of winning the 2022 presidential contest.
I’m happy that Raila heeded my advice…hehe! And now he’s headed to victory in the August 9 poll.
For someone who has contested for the presidency in the past four elections and lost to his rivals, all indications are the political enigma from Bondo has learnt his lessons and his chances of winning the August 9 poll currently stands at over 75%.
Yet, I know many are wondering how this will happen, with the ominous question being: what has he done differently this time round to guarantee him a win?
Politics is a game of numbers and Raila’s endeavour to win elections without the support of the GEMA nation has been his most worthless casuistry ever.
Suffice it to say that while the septuagenarian enjoys a reasonably good support from across the country, the vote that should tip the scale in his favour is domiciled in Mt Kenya region.
And for the first time, Raila has kept off his hobby-horse of attacking the GEMA community (the most significant vote bloc in Kenya) and instead approached the community and its leaders as someone seeking partnership.
Needless to say, the GEMA community has invested heavily in business in Nairobi and around the country and the last thing they would want is chaos or someone who embodies politically instigated violence.
It follows that as typical businessmen, a section of the GEMA community has embraced Raila Odinga, with the latter promising to ensures their businesses will continue to thrive.
In short, it has taken four losses for Raila to realise that winning a poll in a country like Kenya involves building bridges with all and sundry.
What’s more, with Uhuru Kenyatta and and Martha Karua at the table to check him, the Mt Kenya community can rest easy that Raila will not introduce any mischief after he takes reins of power.
As of now, all indications are that Raila has made inroads in the Mt Kenya region and will garner at least 40% of the total vote tally from the GEMA community (residing in Mt Kenya, the Rift Valley diaspora and across the country).
Also, the former prime minister has this time around avoided the subject of stolen elections during campaign rallies.
The GEMA community bore the brunt of the 2007/8 post election violence that saw mass killings and displacement on the claims of stolen election.
Why is avoiding the subject of stolen elections important? Because the truth is Raila Odinga lost fairly all the previous elections in 1997, 2007, 2023 and 2017.
He knows this and the hype about stolen elections was nothing but a face-saving tactic and distraction to keep his gullible followers busy till next poll.
Interestingly, this time round, Tinga has steered clear of the subject instead concentrating on wooing the mountaineers.
His main competitor William Ruto has on many past occasions maintained Raila lost the 2007 poll.
Ruto, obviously knows how to whip up emotions, and the best way to get Raila to carry the blame of the violence that claimed over 1,100 lives is to say the latter lost the 2007 poll.
Luckily, someone this time around successfully advised the Azimio leader to drop the line and focus more on selling what his government will do for Kenyans.
The past elections show a trend where Kenyan voters tend to vote for candidates who will at the very least ensure peace prevails in the country.
Also, as advised, Raila even dumped the ODM party that’s associated with political violence and carved a new home in Azimio La Umoja.
While Azimio is far from perfect, it has some consistent people like Raila’s deputy Martha Karua who Kenyans can rely on to call out corruption and injustice in Azimio led government.
Suffice it to say Raila has painfully metamorphosed into a patient leader who Kenyans can depend on to steer the country after the exit of Uhuru Kenyatta.
Opinions expressed in this article are solely that of the writer and do not necessarily represent the position of GOTTA.news.