Editor’s note: John Mukhwana writes on why it would be extremely difficult to rig the 2027 elections.
Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua recently disclosed that President William Ruto told him he was keen to have a ‘friendly’ IEBC chair.
Gachagua disclosed the president said he could not afford to have someone who would not do his bidding in the 2027 poll.
The confession by Gachagua comes at a time when Kenyans are awaiting the constitution of the electoral body ahead of the 2027 elections.
Truth be told, Ruto’s popularity has been dwindling in the Mt Kenya region and among Gen Z. Gen Z comprise about 60% of Kenya’s population, and the Mt Kenya region literally handed the presidency to Ruto in 2022.
However, Ruto has recently made many blunders that have made people doubt his emotional intelligence as well as political and mathematical skills.
For instance, did he have to humiliate Gachagua the way he did even if he wanted him out of government?
What of the runaway corruption that continues to plague his government, including claims of stashing taxpayers’ money abroad?
All said and done, one question that most Kenyans have been grappling with is whether the incumbent or the opposition would be able to rig the 2027 elections.
The truth is, rigging the 2027 presidential election will be a tall order for the incumbent or anyone for that matter.
Maraga 2017 ruling
In his ruling during the 2017 presidential election petition by the opposition, former Chief Justice David Maraga ruled that elections ended at the polling station.
While the ruling irked the UhuRuto duo at the time, the ruling defined the 2022 poll, with the Supreme Court upholding Ruto’s election as president.
It is worth noting that the opposition Azimio La Umoja were unable to disprove even one of the about 46,000 Form 34 As from the polling stations.
What’s more, the subsequent vote recount and confirmation involving randomly selected ballot boxes showed the votes were as recorded in the Form 34A.
Interestingly, this same scenario is likely to be played against Ruto in the 2027 poll if he dares to manipulate the election to his favour.
Additionally, the situation of Kenyans camping at polling stations with smartphones to ‘guard the votes is likely to replay itself in the 2027 poll.
The reason the 2022 general election has been termed among the most free and fair in Kenya’s history was because Kenyans monitored every detail of it.
Ruto’s options
Under the circumstances, Ruto has very few options except to woo voters to his fold.
It is no wonder there are claims the government is keen to issue national identity cards to refugees and other vulnerable groups.
The thing is to hype the issuance of the IDs and ensure the aforementioned groups feel duty bound to vote for Ruto in his 2027 re-election bid.
Also, President Ruto has not given up on winning back Mt Kenya region, a region that has bolted from UDA after the acrimonious ouster of former DP Rigathi Gachagua.
Whether the president’s efforts will secure his re-election is, up till now, a matter of speculation.
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But what’s certain is that it would be difficult for the incumbent or any party, for that matter, to manipulate the 2027 presidential results.
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