If the Numbers Speak, ‘Bazenga’ James Gakuya Could Be Nairobi’s Next Governor

Editor’s note: Nairobi resident and political commentator John Mwangi argues that the 2013 Kidero-Waititu contest offers a revealing lesson for 2027: in Nairobi, numbers, grassroots organisation and political endurance can do wonders – qualities he believes ‘Bazenga’ James Gakuya has steadily built over two decades in the city’s political trenches.

Nairobi has rewarded outsiders, technocrats and political insurgents, but its hardest currency remains organisation. James Gakuya has spent years accumulating it.

There is an intriguing way to read Nairobi’s 2027 gubernatorial race: look backwards.

The 2013 contest between Evans Kidero and Ferdinand Waititu remains one of Nairobi’s most revealing political battles.

Kidero won with 692,483 votes, against Waititu’s 617,839.

The difference was just 74,644 votes.

That narrow margin turned the election into a courtroom battle that outlived election night.

It also offers a useful lens through which to examine Gakuya’s City Hall ambition.

The Courtroom Shadow

Waititu did not accept defeat quietly.

He challenged Kidero’s victory, questioning the tallying process and alleged irregularities at several polling stations.

The dispute moved through the courts before reaching the Supreme Court, which ultimately affirmed Kidero’s election.

But the political aftershocks were far from over.

In 2014, journalist Geoffrey Kiplagat alleged that Supreme Court Justice Philip Tunoi had received a KSh200 million bribe linked to the election petition.

Kiplagat alleged the money was intended to influence the case in Kidero’s favour.

The claim was explosive, but it was never established as fact.

The Judicial Service Commission found evidence of inappropriate contact involving Tunoi and agents of a litigant and recommended a tribunal.

The tribunal, however, ended without determining the bribery allegation after Tunoi retired.

That distinction matters. Politics thrives on suspicion, but history must separate allegations from proven facts.

Yet the episode revealed something enduring about Nairobi politics.

City Hall is never merely about the ballot.

It is about organisation, alliances, turnout, resources, legal muscle and the resilience to survive political storms.

That is precisely where Gakuya deserves attention.

Gakuya’s Long Game

James Mwangi Gakuya is not arriving in Nairobi politics as a stranger.

He has been building his political credentials from the ground up for decades.

Parliament records show that he entered Nairobi’s political system as a councillor in 2002 before moving to Parliament in 2013 as Embakasi North MP.

That journey matters.

Gakuya did not discover Nairobi after becoming nationally prominent.

He grew inside its wards, estates, markets and political networks.

He learned the city from the pavement upwards.

That experience cannot be manufactured during an election year.

His electoral record reinforces the point.

In 2013, Gakuya won Embakasi North with 32,041 votes, defeating ODM’s Joan Macodawa, who polled 27,065.

Four years later, he increased his tally to 43,733 votes.

The numbers tell a simple story.

He was not merely winning.

He was building.

The Mobiliser

Gakuya’s greatest political asset may not be his speeches.

It may be his ability to organise people around a political project.

That distinction is crucial in Nairobi.

The city has produced politicians who could dominate television studios but struggle to dominate polling stations.

Others have generated enormous social media noise without converting it into votes.

Gakuya’s political career has followed a different route.

His strength has grown through networks, repeated elections and alliances forged through Nairobi’s shifting political weather.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya. Photo/courtesy

His parliamentary experience has also exposed him to national political machinery beyond his constituency.

That makes his gubernatorial bid look less like a sudden gamble and more like the next chapter of a long political apprenticeship.

The challenge, however, is formidable. Embakasi North alone cannot elect Nairobi’s governor.

Gakuya must transform a constituency machine into a citywide coalition spanning Kasarani, Westlands, Dagoretti, Kibra, Mathare, Lang’ata, Ruaraka, Roysambu and beyond.

That is where the 2013 contest becomes instructive.

Numbers Matter

Kidero’s 692,483 votes did not come from one political bloc.

Neither did Waititu’s 617,839.

Their contest demonstrated the scale of Nairobi’s electoral battlefield and the coalition-building required to conquer it.

Waititu’s performance was particularly revealing.

The Supreme Court eventually ruled he lost but came within 74,644 votes of Kidero.

The lesson remains powerful.

Grassroots machinery can bring an unconventional candidate within touching distance of City Hall.

Gakuya’s story is different.

He has spent more than two decades building political capital in Nairobi.

That gives his 2027 ambition a foundation beyond campaign rhetoric.

A recent survey placed him at 44 per cent support across sampled Nairobi wards, although that figure should be viewed as an indicator, not a forecast.

More importantly, his political engagements are increasingly reaching beyond Embakasi North.

That is the real test. Can Gakuya turn familiarity into a citywide movement?

If he can, Nairobi’s political arithmetic changes.

The City Beckons

Nairobi voters are famously unpredictable.

They can embrace experience today and chase novelty tomorrow.

But beneath that volatility lies a stubborn truth.

Organisation matters.

So, does endurance.

So, does keeping political networks alive between elections.

Gakuya has demonstrated all three.

His City Hall bid is therefore more than another politician announcing an ambition.

It is the culmination of a long Nairobi apprenticeship.

Gakuya enters this race with something Waititu had not accumulated in 2013: decades of Nairobi political experience, an established electoral base and a record of surviving successive political cycles.

The road to City Hall will be brutal.

But Nairobi’s political history repeatedly rewards those who understand its streets before they seek to govern them.

And if the numbers really do speak, James Gakuya may be closer to City Hall than Nairobi’s political class currently imagines.

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